In 2020, as in 2016, the Trafalgar Group provided accurate presidential election polls for the swing states. However, despite remarkably consistent precision, Trafalgar’s win predictions for the swing states were, on average, incorrect. At the same time, the conventional pollsters, even though far less precise, were correct as to their predictions for the winner in the swing states. This seems on the surface to be rather anomalous: why would the more precise pollster get the wrong overall answer?
One answer to this question could be that fraud conducted during the election occurred on such a large scale that the resulting distortion of the vote caused otherwise very accurate polling to appear to be wrong, when it really was not. There is already plenty of evidence that substantial election fraud occurred, especially in the swing states. [1,2] In particular, the numerical analyses of voting patterns are quite disturbing. [3,4,5] The purpose of this article is to show that Trafalgar polling was better in the swing states Trump won, and significantly worse in swing states Trump lost. Similarly, the reverse was true for the conventional pollsters. Both of these circumstances support the hypothesis of election fraud, since this sort of polling dichotomy would not be expected for pollsters who routinely produce consistent results. Election fraud could explain this unanticipated difference, because it would cause the “actual” vote to depart significantly from accurate pre-election polls.
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