COVID-19 – Unwarranted Hysteria

One of the key aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic which is not being accurately reported is its mortality rate. This is critically important, because the careless implication that mortality resulting from this virus will be catastrophic has led to an extreme over-reaction which has caused significant and unnecessary economic impacts. A close look at the numbers reveals some crucial underlying facts.

The first thing to be aware of is that at this time it is impossible to know the real mortality rate for this pandemic. That can only be estimated, since while the number of deaths resulting from the disease is reasonably well known, there is as yet no clear assessment of the number of persons infected by the disease. An accurate case count can only result from comprehensive testing coverage, and since the virus has spread so rapidly, it has not been possible to conduct testing which is representative enough to provide a reliable estimate. As pointed out by Alan Reynolds of the CATO Institute, it is very likely that the infection counts underlying current mortality rate calculations are significantly underestimated. [1] Underestimation of cases results directly in overestimation of mortality rates. Continue reading “COVID-19 – Unwarranted Hysteria”